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CPOTE2020 logo
6th International Conference on
Contemporary Problems of Thermal Engineering
Online | 21-24 September 2020

Abstract CPOTE2020-1048-A

Book of abstracts draft
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Identifying the potential market for supercritical CO2 power cycles

Mohamed NOAMAN, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany
Omar AWAD, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany
Tatiana MOROSUK, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany
George TSATSARONIS, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany
Søren SALOMO, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany

As the supercritical Carbon Dioxide (sCO2) technology is still in the research and development phase and did not reach maturity (according to Sandia national Laboratories report published in June 2018, by the year 2022 sCO2 technology could reach TRL7 and reach commercialization TRL9 by 2025), technology management presents a valuable method for understanding the competitive advantage of the cycles through exploring the technology to find out the possible market scenarios of the sCO2 technology in the future. The aim of this paper is to identify the market potential of the supercritical CO2 power cycle and develop scenarios for how the technology development may look like in the future and which market segments might adopt the sCO2 power cycle technology. This is done by illustrating the advantages of the sCO2 power cycle compared to other power conversion cycles through development of future projections for the sCO2 technology. First, a technology profile was created through: (1) creating a critical description of the technology, (2) identifying its current research status, (3) finding out the business potential in the future, (4) assessing the life cycle stage of the technology (technological uncertainty, degree of technological diffusion, breadth of potential application fields, research and development intensity, product maturity and availability of technology), (5) determining the technology’s active players and their activities, and (6) identifying the key drivers of the technology. The technology key drivers were obtained with support of the software program “Parmenides EIDOS”, by creating a situation analysis for all possible external key drivers that affect the technology by linking and creating relationships between them. The outcome was the six most important key drivers responsible for driving the technology in the future. Those key drivers were analyzed and then different projections for each key driver were created based on current energy and power generation sector outlooks and the experts’ recommendations in recent scientific publications. The EIDOS software subsequently calculates the 100 most consistent combination of different projections and 3 scenarios were selected and analyzed based on its cluster view tool. After analyzing the possible technology development scenarios, a survey was created and distributed among experts in the sCO2 technology to shorten the gap between theory and practice.

Keywords: Supercritical CO2 cycle, Technology management, Power generation, Economic analysis, Experts survey